Barely a day after the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, No. 6 UCLA was already pegged as one of the its most likely upset victims.

Las Vegas picked No. 11 Minnesota as a slight favorite, one of only two lower-seeded teams to receive such treatment. Nate Silver - the statistician famous for his success predicting the 2012 presidential elections - gave the Gophers a 61.9 percent chance of beating the Bruins. ESPN's metric-based blog Giant Killers went even further, bumping its prediction to 74 percent.

Perhaps that's fair. The Bruins (25-9) are missing their second-leading scorer after Jordan Adams broke his foot last week. Without the freshman guard, their offense looked stilted in the Pac-12 title game, committing 14 turnovers to eight assists against Oregon.

But what exactly does Minnesota (20-12), a team that stumbled through the latter half of its schedule, bring to Friday night's second-round game in Austin, Texas.

The first name off everyone's tongues is Tubby Smith.

"He's one of the best coaches in the country," UCLA coach Ben Howland said. "That's proven out over time."

Perhaps in the past, but most college players today were only in elementary school at the height of Smith's career.

He won a national championship over a decade ago before eventually being run out of Kentucky, and hasn't exactly been a favorite in Minneapolis. Like many UCLA fans have done with Howland, some of the Golden Gophers faithful have cried out for the sixth-year coach's job - something that might be with a win over the Bruins on Friday.

It would be the first for Minnesota under Smith, who has guided the program to the NCAA Tournament just twice. It lost both times by double digits, and is only now returning to March Madness after two years.

The Gophers did make a deep run through the NIT a year ago before losing to Stanford 75-51 in the final. They opened this season 15-1, solidifying an identity as a physical, grind-it-out team.

The renaissance was helped in part by the return of senior Trevor Mbakwe, who missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL.

The 6-foot-8, 245-pound forward doesn't have immense size, but has led the Big Ten in rebounding in his past two full seasons.

His 8.7 boards per game has made Minnesota fearsome on the glass, a team that ranks eighth in the country in rebounding margin (+8.2). The Bruins, who have only gotten worse on the boards through conference play, sits at 250th with a -1.9 average.

"Everybody's rebounding concerns me," Howland said.

Added freshman Kyle Anderson: "I think we're going to step up to the challenge. We've done that all season. Rebounding's going to be a big emphasis. I think we'll step up to the challenge."

Like UCLA, Minnesota has charted a mercurial path over the past three months. Since the Gophers' 15-1 start, they've only won five games. Not an impressive number, but the victims included Indiana and Michigan State - both ranked in The Associated Press top 10.

They've also lost to Nebraska and Northwestern, teams that combined for nine wins in conference play.

The short-handed Bruins' chances might depend on the version of Minnesota that shows up.  


jack.wang@dailynews.com
twitter.com/thejackwang