Thanks to Mike Miller for posting this preview on BZ recently and for allowing me to re-post it here.
12. Arizona State Sun Devils
I think this is Herb Sendek's last season in Tempe. Although he brings in
some talented players, he simply doesn't have enough talent and there could be
some potential chemistry issues as well.
Both factors stop and start with Jahii Carson, the 5-11 FR PG who sat out
last season getting eligible. Carson has all Pac-12 ability as a FR and could
leave early for the NBA draft, he has that much talent, but his game isn't
really suited for the slow-down approach that Sendek typically takes. It will be
interesting if this scoring lead guard can be comfortable within the structure
of the offense and how well he'll play with others.
The other guards for ASU will come from Bo Barnes, a 6-4 SO transfer from
Hawaii, Evan Gordon, a 6-1 JR transfer from Liberty, and Caelan Robinson, a 6-2
FR. Barnes, who played h.s. ball in Arizona, averaged 6.8 PPG and shot over 38%
from 3 as a FR.
Gordon led Liberty in scoring at 14.4 PPG and is a scoring guard
rather than a point with his size. Robinson drew a lot of raves in h.s. and is
regarded as an outstanding scorer who might replace Carson at the lead guard
spot after Carson leaves. All 3 players will compete for a starting spot.
Neither Barnes nor Gordon have mid-range games and both shot under 40% overall
playing in lesser conferences than the Pac-12.
Up front, the starters will likely be returning starters Carrick Felix, 6-6
SR SF, 10.5 PPG, and Jonathan Gilling, 6-7 SO, 7.1 PPG, and Jordan Bachynski,
7-2 JR 6 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.4 BPG. Felix, the JC transfer, had a very solid first
season; he can slash, has a mid-range game and should improve on his 31% from 3.
Gilling, from Denmark, plays that "wing at the 4" spot that Sendek prefers. He
made 41% of his 3s, but averaged less than 2 rebounds per game. Bachynski
presents a load in the middle of ASU's zone along with developing offensive
skills. Look for Felix and Gilling to increase their scoring numbers this
season. Collectively, they need to rebound better although the zone has
something to do with that.
The bench consists of Ruslan Pateev, 7-0 SR C, 4.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 BPG, and
FR Kenny Martin, 6-10, and FR Eric Jacobsen. Pateev is a face-up C who gives ASU
valuable minutes backing up Bachynski. Martin is highly-touted, known for his
motor and face-up skills, but is very slender. Jacobsen is slow, but skilled and
very strong for a FR at 235 in h.s. Look for Martin to see a lot of time at the
4 spot this season.
ASU was 5-13 last year in the Pac-12 and lost Trent Lockett, Kyle Cain and
Chanse Creekmuir after the season along with Keala King during it. The players
coming have some real talent, but as I noted the key will be whether Carson can
thrive in Sendek's system. My guess is no, he'll get frustrated and transfer,
and that should seal Sendek's fate.
11. Utah Utes
Utah went 3-15 in the Pac-12 in Larry Krystkowiak's inaugral season as coach
and then underwent a wave of transfers. However, Coach K has brought in a group
of transfers and FR who should more than make up for the difference and help
move Utah up the standings.
The returning pickings are slim. There's 6-4 SR SG Cedric Martin, 7.4 PPG,
37% from 3, who's regarded as a defensive specialist; 6-6 SR SF Dijon Farr, 6.7
PPG, 4.8 RPG, 37.5% from 3, who has a good mid-range game and some handles and
who should dramatically improve his scoring numbers this season, and 7-0 SR C
Jason Washburn, 11.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, a talented big man who should be the
statistical and emotional leader of the team if he can shake some off-court
issues.
That about does it for returning players. But if you go 3-15 in conference,
that's not a bad thing.
Newcomers in the backcourt include 5-10 JR PG Glen Dean, a transfer from
Eastern Washington where he lead the Eagles in scoring with 13.2 PPG while
handing out 4.2 APG and hitting 41% from 3, LSU tranfer Aaron Dotson, 6-4 205 JR
SG, 6.8 PPG on 37.5% from 3, and 6-3 SR CG Jared Dubois, of Westchester High
School here in LA and Loyola Marymount, 10.1 PPG, 36.1% from 3. Dean and Dotson
should start, with Dubois and Martin getting a ton of time off the bench, and
this represnets a steep upgrade of talent for the Utes.
FR PG Brandon Taylor, 5-9, and 6-2 FR CG Justin Seymour add to the backcourt
depth. Taylor, from Pacific Hills here in So Cal, is very quick and a pest.
Seymour is reported to be a true CG with good range, size and athleticism.
Up front, Washburn and Farr will be joined by Jordan Leveridge, 6-6 FR PF.
Leveridge was considered one of the better prospects in the west last season.
He's a short, compact, strong, highly-skilled 4 man with a great motor. If
you're looking for an easy comparison, think Chane Behanan of Louisville.
Leveridge should be an all Pac-12 FR.
Off the bench, the team has David Foster, 7-3 255 SR C, who sat out last
season due to injury. Foster is Utah's all-time blocks leader and is a Mark
Eaton-type, not very skilled on offense and not very mobile, but boy does he
take up space inside on defense. His return, plus Leveridge, raise Utah's
interior game to a new level. Utah also adds Brazilian import Renan Lenz, a 6-9
235 JR PF with good face-up skills and some ability to handle it. He is a
starting quality player who will come off the bnech and further strengthen
Utah's suddenly nascent frontcourt.
Other reserves will include FR SF Dakarai Tucker, 6-5, an athletic slasher,
6-10 235 FR C/PF Jeremy Olson, a banger with limted athleticism, and Dallin
Bachynski, 6-11 230 SO C, the younger brother of ASU's Jordan Bachynski, who
played decent minutes as a FR at Southern Utah before going on a 2-year mission
and then transferring to Utah.
Utah thus has a serious talent upgrade at all positions, espcially the
frontcourt. In last year's Pac-12, Utah might've made major strides. As it is,
they ought to upset some of the better teams along the way to climbing out of
the cellar and possibly surprising by doing even better than 11th place.
10. Washington State Cougars
It might seem strange to peg a team with the pac-12's best returning player,
Brock Motum, for just 10th place. But WSU finished just 7-11 in the pac-12 last
season and 2 of their wins were against 1-17 USC (with a third at home against
5-13 ASU). In addition, Wazzu last 3 starters and didn't replace them through
recruiting.
Motum, the 6-10 SR, plays both the 4 and 5 and presnets matchup nightmares
whereever he plays because of his ability to stretch defenses with his 3-point
shooting. He averaged 18.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG and hit 39.7% of his 3s despite being
the focus of many teams' defenses.
Reggie Moore, 6-1 SR PG, averaged 10.2 PPG and 5.2 APG, leading the
conferrence in the latter category with an excellent 2.0 A/TO ratio. However,
he's an erratic shooter who sometimes sulks on defense when his shot isn't
falling. The 3rd returning player with starter experience is Davonte Lacy, a
strong 6-3 SO SG who scored 8.5 PPG. He's a streaky shooter who also plays
indifferent d at times. Defense is WSU's Achilles Heel.
The other starters will likely be Mike Ladd, 6-5 SR SF, 5.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, a
good outside shooter, and DJ Shelton, 6-10 JR C/PF, 4.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, a mobile
big man with nascent post skills. Returning veterans who will come off the bech
are Patrick Simon, 6-8 JR PF 2.6 PPG, a finesse player who's a good shooter, and
Dexter Kernich-Drew, a willowy 6-6 SO wing who can also shoot the 3.
Newcomers are led by James Hunter, a 6-10 JR C from Australia who could
challenge Shelton for a starter's role, Demarquise Johnson, a 6-5 FR SG, a
standout athlete with offensive skills who hasn't qualified yet (if he does, he
could challange for a starting role as well), and Richard Longrus, an undersized
PF at 6-6 with long arms, a high bb IQ and a good motor who might also see time
a starter. Then there's Brett Boese, a 6-6 FR SF who can shoot it, but who will
come along more slowly.
WSU has Motum and Moore, but plays poor team d and doesn't really have an
established second option of offense. Johnson might be that player if he
qualifies, but he won't be enough to lift the Cougars out of a 10th place
finish.
9. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State went 7-11 last season, but they were a dangerous team with some
serious athletes, capable of outscoring even the best teams in the conference.
But they lost Jared Cunningham early to the NBA and that's robbed them of a
great deal of their danger. They didn't replace him through recruiting and have
some holes.
The frontcourt is OSU's strength. Devon Collier, 6-7 JR SF 13.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG,
61.5% FG%, and Eric Moreland, 6-9 SO PF, 5.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG, make up one
of the more athletic, talented forward tandems in the conference. Collier is
best in the open floor when OSU can get into transition mode and in slashing or
cutting towards the basket as he's a streaky jump shooter. Moreland can be
dominant on d and on the boards and is just starting to scratch the surface of
his potential as a post scorer.
Backing them up will be Victor Robbins, 6-6 FR SF from Compton High, and
Jarmal Reid, 6-7 230 FR PF. Robbins is a very good athlete with developing wing
skills. Reid is reported to be a strong post player with some good face-up
abilities. Also, Daniel Gomis, 6-10 FR PF, was a redshirt last season after
getting hurt and is valued by the OSU coaches as someone who can make an instant
impact. Rhys Murphy, 6-7 JR SF, 1.6 PPG, is a good outside shooter.
At C, Angus Brandt, 6-10 SR, 9.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 49.2% from 3, and Joe Burton,
6-7 280 SR, 8.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, 42.9% from 3, are paradoxically the
team's best 3-point shooters and Burton led the team in assists in OSU's
halfcourt Princeton-type offense. FR Maika Ostling, 6-10, probably won't play
much as he understudies the vets.
In the backcourt, Ahmad Starks, 5-9 JR 12.1 PPG, 37.1% from 3, and Roberto
Nelson, 6-3 JR 9.3 PPG, 34.8% from 3, may play 70 minutes per game. They're both
very streaky from the outside and have questionable decision-making abilities.
Backing them up is vet Challe Barton, 6-3 SO, who only averaged 1.7 PPG last
season. Langston Morris-Walker, 6-5 FR SG/SF, is a very good athlete, but it's
not clear if he has the quickness or skills to play guard or will instead lend
depth to the forward position.
So OSU has some serious questions both as to depth and decision-making in the
backccurt and that, along with a lack of good team defense, should hold back its
talented frontline. If Starks and/or Nelson have a very good year and OSU finds
a relaible guard reserve, OSU could challenge to finish much higher in the
Pac-12.
8. USC Trojans
The Trojans were a pitiful 1-17 in Pac-12 play last season. But they were
riddled with injuries and add a raft of transfers and guys coming back from
injuries this season and thus could be the most unpredictable team in the
conference. They could easily finish 3 or more spaces higher or fall flat again.
The guards include a mix of returnees and newcomers. Maurice Jones, 5-7 JR
PG, 13.0 PPG, 3.5 APG, 30.2% from 3,played 38 MPG last season but could lose his
starting job to Jio Fontan, 6-0 SR PG, who missed all last season with an
injury. Fontan averaged 10.5 PPG and 3.9 APG 2 years ago while hitting 37.5% of
his 3s and is clearly better than Jones if he's fully-recovered from his ACL
tear.
JUCO transfer JT Terrell, 6-3 JR SG, should start at the other guard spot. He
averaged 11.1 PPG and hit 35.7% from 3 as a FR at Wake Forest and then was a JC
AA last season. Terrell has all Pac-12 potential. He will be backed by returning
Greg Allen, 6-3 SR SG, 4.7 PPG, and 6-2 FR CG Brendyn Taylor of Fairfax High, a
very good athlete with a nice stroke who should eventually succeed Terrell at
the 2 after 2014.
At the wing spot, Byron Wesley, 6-5 SO, 9.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, a superior athlete
who needs to improve his game beyond slashing to the hopp (which he does
extremely well) should hold off another Wake Forest refugee, Ari Stewart, 6-7
JR, who averaged 8.5 PPG and 4.4 RPG as a SO in the ACC while shooting
atrociously from the field. The Trojans have a lot of players with very good
athleticism who aren't good shooters and whose history as transfers adds
questions of character and chemistry.
In the post, Aaron Fuller, 6-6 JR PF, 10.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, himself a transfer
from Iowa, must hold off another transfer, 6-6 SR Eric Wise of UC-Irvine. Wise
averaged 16.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG in his final year for the Anteaters and like
Fuller is a 240-pound bull with face-up skills as well as low post moves. 6-8 FR
Strahinja Gavrilovic and 6-7 SO Evan Smith add depth here.
Dewayne Dedmon, 7-0 JR C, 7.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, went down with injury
during the season and now returns to hopefully fulfill Coach Kevon O'Neill's
prediction of regular double/doubles. He's certainly athletic and mobile for a
big man, but lacks refined skills and feel up to this point last year. James
Blasczyk, 7-1 SR C, 3.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, is a space-eater who got some starting
experience last season in Dedmon's absence, but who is best spelling the starter
for brief periods off the bench.
O'Neill must keep his fingers crossed that everyone stays healthy and also
that he can incorporate so many newcomers and returnees from injury into a
coherent whole. My take is that something always goes wrong for everybody at
some point during a season and so USC will get bit somewhere along the way and
this will limit their upside. Crawling out of that 1-17 hole into a respectable
7-11 record would be a semi-triumph all by itself.
7. Oregon Ducks
Oregon finished 13-5 in Pac-12 play lasy year, tied with Cal for 2nd place.
They then lost their standout starting backcourt of Devoe Joseph and Garrett Sim
plus 3 athletic part-time starting forwards in Olu Asaolu, Jeremy Jacob and
Tyrone Nared.
However, the Ducks have enough left over and a strong recruiting class to
keep within range of the upper division of the conference. It starts with all
Pac-12 player EJ Singler, 6-6 SR wing, 13.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 36.8% from 3. Singler
is a savvy, skilled player with good athletic ability and could really emerge as
one of the best players in the conference this season.
Two other starters return: Tony Woods, 6-11 SR C, 6.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG,
and Carlos Emory, 6-6 SR PF, 6.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG. Woods, a transfer from Wake
Forest, is a strong help defender who is often curiously passive when it comes
to scoring and rebounding. The Ducks could surely use him living up to his
potential. Emory split the 4 spot 4 ways last season, but should flourish in a
full-time starter's role. He's strong and mobile with good face-up skills and
can score inside and out.
The Ducks' frontcourt will be backed by Ben Carter, 6-8 FR PF, a very good,
mobile post prospect from Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, along with
redshirt 6-9 FR Austin Kuemper, reported to be skilled but not very athletic,
and wings Damyeon Dotson, 6-6 FR, and Fred Richardson, 6-5 FR.
In the backcourt, two standout newcomers should start: Dominic Artis, 5-11 FR
PG, and Devon Branch, 6-5 JR CG. Artis, out of Oakland, is a pure PG with a good
outside shot who should make the all Pac-12 FR team. Branch should also
challenge to make what is technically an all "newcomers" team as he's a very
talented true combo guard who can shoot it and also play the point. Johnathan
Loyd, 5-8 JR, 3.3 PPG, 2.9 APG, 29.3% from 3, has some starting experience and
should see a lot of minutes off the bench. Hopefully, he shoots it better.
Oregon's fortunes are highly dependent on their young guards making an instant
impact. If they turn out to be really good right away, Oregon could challenge
for the NCAA Tournament.
The other backcourt reserves include 6-3 FR CG Willie Moore, reported to be a
very athletic and skilled player, and 6-1 SO SG Brett Kingma, who scored 3.1 PPG
while hitting 31.3% from 3 as a FR. Kingma lacks really good athleticism, but
was known as a real sharpshooter in H.S.
6. Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado finished in 5th place in the Pac-12 last season with an 11-7 record,
but went on a tear to win the conference tournament and last until the round of
32 where they lost to Elite 8 team Baylor. Though Carlon Brown, Nate Tomlinson
and Austin Default have all departed, the Buffs have enough returning talent to
go along with some talented newcomers and one of the best homecourt advantages
in the country to finish in the upper half of the Pac-12 and at least make the
NIT next season.
Their best player is Andre Roberson, 6-7 JR CF, 11.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG,
1.9 BPG, 38% from 3. Roberson should leave after this season to be a solid first
round pick in the NBA Draft. He has the skills of a wing combined with a
hellacious attitude regarding the ownership of rebounds. He's also one of the
best defenders in the country.
The other frontcourt starters at the start of the year should be Shane
Harris-Tunks, 6-11 JR, 2.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, and Jeremy Adams, 6-5 JR SF, 2.3 PPG,
1.4 RPG, but both could easily get displaced by FR during the course of the
season. Harris-Tunks is a banger, but doesn't do anything well besides bang,
screen and foul. His chief competition will come from Josh Scott, 6-10 FR PF/C,
one of the highest-rated h.s. prospects from Colorado in awhile. Scott is mobile
and skilled and only needs weight to become a very good starting post.
Adams will have his hands full holding off Xavier Johnson, 6-6 FR CF, a tough
combo forward from Mater Dei High School with developing wing skills. Johnson
actually resembles Roberson a lot in his game and might be his eventual
successor, although 6-8 FR PF Wesley Gordon will have something to say about
that, he's an athletic true low post player who should see a lot of time
immediately.
The backcourt will consist of the SO duo of 6-1 Askia Booker and 6-5 Spencer
Dinwiddie, two LA h.s. players who made a big impact for Colorado as FR last
season. Booker was the team's 6th man in scoring 9.1 PPG while hitting 37.2%
from 3. Dinwiddie started at the SG spot, scoring 10.3 PPG and making 43.8% from
3. Both play very good defense. It'll be interesting to see if one or the other
emerges as a full-time PG or whether, as I suspect, they'll both initiate a lot
of plays this season.
Backing them up will be returnee Sabatino Chen, 6-4 JR SG, 2.0 PPG, and
Xavier Talton, 6-0 FR PG, a pure true PG, very quick and a good candidate to
make the kind of impact that Booker and Dinwiddie did last season. Chris
Jenkins, 6-6 FR SG/SF, is a young wing who could emerge down the road as a
player.
Colorado is young, but very athletic, versatile and committed to defense.
They have an outside shot to finish in the top 4 of the pac-12 and make the NCAA
Tournament for the second straight season.
5. California Golden Bears
The Bears finished 13-5 last season and were the Pac-12's only at-large team
in the NCAA Tournament. The they lost Jorge Gutierrez, arguably the best
all-around player in the Pac-12, and capable Harper Kamp. Guess what? Cal could
be better this season, but sink in the standings because the conference has
moved up a notch or two.
Cal's strength is still its backcourt and wing spots. Justin Cobbs, 6-2 JR
PG, 12.6 PPG, 5.0 APG, 2.5 A/TO ratio, 41% from 3, is the best PG in the Pac-12.
Allen Crabbe, 15.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 39.9% from 3, an all Pac-12 player, could
challenge for POY honros if he shows improvement at creating his own shot. These
two guys are the anchors of the team.
They will be joined by Ricky Kreklow, 6-6 SO SG/SG, a swingman transfer from
Missouri, Tyrone Wallace, 6-4 FR CG, and Brandon Smith, 5-11 SR PG, 2.8 PPG, 2.1
APG. Kreklow is a very good athlete with ridiculously deep range on his 3.
Wallace is a true combo guard with the potential to develop into a superior
defensive player.
Smith is the veteran, a true PG who doesn't shoot it very
well. Emerson Murray, 6-3 JR SG 1.7 PPG, and Jeff Powers, 6-7 JR SF, 1.3 PPG,
are also available for spot duty; both can shoot the long ball.
Up front, David Kravish, 6-9 SO PF, 6.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, emerged as a
starter last season and showed good mobility and athleticism. With added weight,
he should more than make up for the loss of Kamp. Richard Solomon, 6-10 JR PF/C,
5.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG, had an up and down season, getting suspended twice,
but returns as the favorite to take the other post spot. He will face a stiff
challenge from Sami Eleraky, a 7-footer from Denmark who posted good numbers for
a Danish pro club and who is reported to have excelletn athleticism and mobility
for a big man with some good face-up moves. Also in the mix for a starting role
is former walk-on Robert Thurman, 6-10 SR C/PF, 3.7 PPG, 1.9 RPG, who had a few
big games towards the end of the conference season last year. He's a big banger
with good hands who finishes well around the basket. Bak Bak, 6-9 SR PF,
Christian Behrens, 6-8 SO PF, Khalil Johnson, 6-7 FR CF and Kalieb Rodriguez,
6-8 FR PF, should bring up the rear.
Cal is still very strong both inside and out and could be poised to make
another run into the NCAA Tournament. Kravish, Solomon, Eleraky and Thurman will
have to show themselves as more than just productive for Cal to reach its full
potential.
4. Washington Huskies
Udub won the regular season Pac-12 last year with a 14-4 record, led by Tony
Wroten and Terrence Ross. Both players have gone to the NBA. But the Huskies
return enough talent to go with a strong homecourt advantage to make a strong
run for the Pac-12 title again as well as the NCAA Tournament.
Washington's backcourt remains its strength. CJ Wilcox, 6-5 JR SG, 14.2 PPG,
3.4 RPG, 40% from 3, and Abdul Gaddy, 6-3 SR PG, 8.1 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.5 A/TO
ratio, return as starters. Probably all Pac-12 player Wilcox has the prettiest
shot in the conference. Gaddy is one of the conference's best PG's, but does
need to shoot the ball better (just 33% from 3 and 68% from the FT line).
Joining them will be Scott Suggs, 6-7 SR SF, who averaged 7.4 PPG and hit 45% of
his 3s 2 years ago before missing all last season with an injury.
Backcourt depth should be covered by Mark McLaughlin, 6-6 JR wing, the
nation's top JUCO scorer. Andrew Andrews, 6-2 FR PG, a redshirt, should back up
Gaddy, and Hikeem Stewart, 6-2 SO CG, will try to improve upon an unmemorable
frosh campaign.
Up front, Washington has d and rebounding, but scoring could be an issue. The
team also lost valuable role player Darnell Gant and no immediate replacement is
in sight. Aziz N'Diaye, 7-0 SR C, 7.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG, and Desmond
Simmons, 6-7 SO PF, 4.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, should start. N'Diaye is big and athletic,
but has minimal post moves. Simmons is a junk-yard dog type with some ability to
step out and hit the 3.
Backing them up will be a hodge-podge of players unless someone emerges from
the pack: Shawn Kemp, Jr., 6-9 SO C, 1.6 PPG, 0.8 RPG, Austin Seferian-Jenkins,
6-6 SO PF, 1.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, Martin Bruenig, 6-9 SO PF, 1.7 PPG, 1.1 RPG, and
Jernard Jarreau, 6-11 FR PF, will all be in the mix. Kemp is obviously the son
of the former NBA player. He's big and has some mobility, but lacks refined
skills. Seferian-Jenkins, the fb walk-on, if he shows up again for the bb team,
gives them some consistent rebounding and d around the basket. Bruenig didn't
show much as a FR. Jarreau redshirted last year. He's supposed to be mobile and
skilled, but very slender. Udub got by last year with Gant and Seferian-Jenkins
providing the backup relief in the post. If Kemp can improve just a little and
if Jarreau has the advertised skills, they should be better off this season with
the presumed improvement of N'Diaye and Simmons.
The Huskies have the pieces and homecourt advantage to make the NCAA
Tournament even after losing both Wroten and Ross. Improved SR play from Gaddy
and N'Diaye will be the key to their season.
3. Stanford Trees
Stanford went 11-7 in the Pac-12 last year and then went on to win the NIT.
They're hoping to ride that hot streak into a conference title and an NCAA
Tournament berth this season.
Stanford lost starter Josh Owens and role players Jarrett Mann, Andrew
Zimmerman and Jack Trotter. The retunring talent and newcomers more than make up
for those losses.
In the backcourt, Stanford might have the Pac-12's best duo in Aaron Bright,
5-11 JR PG, 11.7 PPG, 3.7 APG, 43.6% from 3, and Chasson Randle, 6-1 SO CG, 13.8
PPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 43.8% from 3. Both players can shoot from very deep and
Randle plays tough defense as well; he might emerge as the Pac-12's best
all-around guard this season. These guys will play 65 minutes a night between
them so there's not much room for backups. Gabriel Harris, 6-2 SR SG, 3.3 PPG,
will likely take all those minutes. Christian Sanders, 6-3 FR SG, is reportedly
a terrific spot-up shooter.
Anthony Brown's emergence at the wing spot was a big part of Stanford's NIT
run. The 6-6 JR averaged 8.1 PPG and 4.0 RPG while hitting 35.3% of his 3s and
could dramatically improve those numbers this season. 6-9 FR Rosco Allen out of
Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas has legit advanced wing skills at his
height and should prove a capable backup.
Up front, the post is led by Dwight Powell, 6-9 JR PF, 5.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG.
Highly-touted coming out of h.s., this could be the year Powell puts it all
together on a consistent basis instead of in spots. He's mobile and strong and
blessed with very good face-up skills, but doesn't always compete every night.
Josh Huestis, 6-7 JR PF, 5.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG, does bring it every night
and should be the other post starter. He has long arms and good bounce and can
step out and hit the 3 as well, but his interior d was a big part of Stanford's
improvement last season.
Other returnees include John Gage, 6-9 JR PF/C, 3.9 PPG, 37% from 3, a
skilled offensive player, Stefan Nastic, 6-11 245 SO C, 2.0 PPG, 1.1 RPG,
another face-up big man who could be this year's sleeper for Stanford, and Andy
Brown, 6-7 JR PF, the Mater Dei forward whose career has been derailed by
injuries so far.
A talented newcomer, Grant Verhoeven, 6-9 FR C/PF, should see immediate PT
for the Cardinal. He's a very skilled, tough kid who might never ben an elite
talent but who should at least develop into a very good role player at the high
major level.
Stanford can use a player with his physicality to compliment
Huestis in the middle.
Led by its backcourt, Stanford has no excuse to not compete for the Pac-12
title and make the NCAA Tournament this season.
2. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona, which finished 12-6 in the Pac-12 last season, 4th place, has a much
more talented team this year. They'll also be very young up front, but the kids
are ready to rumble.
In the backcourt, Arizona will likely team newcomer Mark Lyons, 6-1 SR CG,
with Nick Johnson, 6-2 SO SG, 9.0 PPG, 33.1% from 3, who started last season as
a FR. Lyons averaged 15.1 PPG and 2.8 APG while hitting 39.2% of his 3s as a JR
at Xavier. He also averaged 2.2 TOPG and clashed with his coach over wanting to
play the point full-time and over shot selection. He'll now get that wish at
Arizona and the Wildcat's season really hinges on the outcome. If Lyons has a
strong SR year, Arizona could be a legit top 15 team. A chemistry nightmare and
this team could slide all the way down to 6th or 7th place. Johnson is a strong
leaper and solid open shooter from 3 who also wants to be a PG. He needs to work
on his defense.
Backing them up will be Jordin Mayes, 6-2 JR CG, 4.9 PPG, 29.7% from 3. A
streaky outside shooter, Mayes' game blows as hot and cold as his shot. It will
really help Arizona if he matures and focuses more on playing d and taking good
shots. If he doesn't, Gabe York, 6-1 FR SG, might take his place. York is a very
good J shooter who can also create his own shot. He's also slender and may need
some time to adjust to the college game.
At the wing, Arizona will use all Pac-12 player Solomon Hill, 6-6 SR CF, 13.0
PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.6 APG, 39.4% from 3. Arizona initiated a lot of its offense
through Hill at the 4 spot last season where Hill used his handles to beat more
traditional posts off the dribble and create for himself and his teammates
inside. A strong 230, Hill won't have that same speed advantage at the 3, but
will have a noticeable strength advantage over most college wings. Hill will bid
to be the Pac-12's POY this season.
The oft-injured Kevin Parrom, 6-5 SR SF, 5.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 34.8% from 3, will
back up Hill, giving U of A the strongest set of wings in the Pac-12. Parrom is
good enough to be a starter and could get the nod if Sean Miller decides to go
small again and move Hill back to the 4. We should see that combo at times this
year.
But only at times. That's because Arizona has brought in a real bonanza of
talent in the post. Kaleb Tarczewski, 7-0 FR C, Grant Jerrrett, 6-11 FR PF/C,
and Brandon Ashley, 6-9 FR PF, should all see a lot of action this year. My
guess is that Tarczewski and Ashley will be the starters. Tarczewski is a legit
7-footer with good post moves. He's got decent mobility and very good low post
moves. Ashley is a super athlete with the ability to hit long Js as well as post
up inside. Jerrett is very mobile with a nice array of post skills and might
pass up Tarczewski and Ashley as he develops physically; right now, he's very
slender.
Angelo Chol, 6-8 SO PF/C, 2.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, returns up front, but appears to
have been recruited over. He has potential and it will be interesting to see if
he gets PT or joins a growing list of players who have transferred out of U of A
in Miller's short tenure.
Arizona has talent both inside and out. The young posts are unproven and the
Mark Lyons Experiment is about to begin, but if all the pieces fall into place
this could be a hell of a team come tournament time.
1. UCLA Bruins
It's been 4 years since UCLA won a Pac-12 title. That drought should end this
season.
UCLA finished 11-7 in conference last season, but was a made basket or a stop
in games against Stanford, Washington and Arizona from winning the title last
season and returns the bulk of the team. But 5 newcomers and the play of one
returning player in particular, Josh Smith, should determine the Bruins' fate
this year.
Let's go through the 5 newcomers first. It's safe to say that this is Ben
Howland's most talented recruiting class in his tenure. That's saying a lot for
a guy who's gone to one final and two more Final 4s.
It starts with Shabazz Muhammed, 6-5 FR SF, and Kyle Anderson, 6-8 FR CF.
Muhammed was the consensus #1 player in the country until Nerlens Noel
recalssified and a bona fide one and done type who should be a star from the
get-go (a lingering NCAA investigation into improper benefits may delay that
get-go for 5-10 games). He's a powerful athlete with a good stroke out to 3 and
the rare mid-range game, but more importantly he has a killer take-no-prisoners
approach which should infect the whole team. A relentless self-improver,
Muhammed should be even better when he enters college than we saw over the
course of the past season. If there are any flaws to his game, it's maybe he
likes to shoot too much and how well he plays with others could be an issue for
the Bruins.
Anderson is a unique, once a generation makes everyone around him better type
of player. At 6-8, he can initiate an offense like a PG yet he has the length
(7-2 wingspan) and strength (225 at the end of his h.s. career) to play the 4
spot. Critics have questioned his ability to defend opposing PGs, but I don't
see him matched up against opposing PGs on the defensive side of the floor.
He'll probably guard forwards and possibly wing-type guards. His bb IQ is off
the charts and enables him to penetrate and defend against many quicker players.
He might also be a one and done type, especially if the Bruins hang a banner.
The other FR ain't so bad. Tony Parker, 6-8 FR C, is a 275-pound space-eater
with refined low post moves and a good face-up game. In the Pac-12, he could be
a top of the line starting C, but might only see 12-15 MPG as a FR. Jordan
Adams, 6-5 FR SF, is the best pure shooter to enter UCLA under Howland and
perhaps since Reggie Miller. He's been shedding weight and has gone from 230 to
215 and is adept at slashing to the basket as well as nailing the deep 3. Again,
look for him to see limited minutes as a FR before moving into the starting
lineup after Muhammed leaves, but he could see extended play when teams zone the
Bruins, which could be a regular occurrence.
The last newcomer is a SR, 6-0 PG Larry Drew II. There was already a Larry
Drew, Jr., which is why he got the Roman numerals after his name. Drew is almost
as much of a key to the upcoming season as Muhammed and Anderson. He clearly has
the quickness and talent to defend quick opposing points. As a SO at North
Carolina, he averaged 8.5 PPG, 5.9 APG, with a 1.5/1 A/TO ratio, and shot 35.2%
from 3. Drew is just an average shooter, but excels at running the fast break
and in breaking down ds off penetration. I was one of those firmly in the Drew
Camp in the infamous Drew/Jerime Anderson debates. He's simply the superior
player and represents an upgrade for UCLA at the PG spot. However, he was a
disruption at UNC with a poor attitude and he needs to keep his head on straight
for UCLA to reach its full potential this season. IMO, Drew will start all
season long for UCLA so his play will be key.
That gives UCLA Drew, Muhammed and Anderson in the starting lineup. I think
the other two starters will come from among Josh Smith, 6-10 JR C 9.9 PPG, 4.9
RPG, 0.7 BPG, Travis Wear, 6-10 JR PF/C 11.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 42.9% from
3, David Wear, 6-10 JR PF 10.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 46.2% from 3, Tyler Lamb, 6-4 JR SG
9.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, 35.8% from 3, and Norm Powell, 6-3 SO SG, 4.6 PPG,
34.7% from 3. I believe the starters will be Smith and Powell.
The enigma that is Josh Smith has been one of the more
fascinating/frustrating experiences for UCLA fans. Touted as a dominating center
coming out of h.s., Smith has rarely dominated at UCLA, but has done so enough
to tantalize Bruin fans with thoughts of more. Weighing in at over 350 pounds
last season, he actually regressed from his FR year. Yet we saw in his games up
in the Washington area, playing before friends and family, that Smith has always
had the ability to dominate even when woefully out of shape.
Reports have come this off-season of Smith dedicating himself to conditioning
and training like never before. At least he's staying in LA this summer, unlike
last summer. We can all be skeptical of those reports, but the Bruins' upcoming
trip to China should give everyone a glimpse of his progress to date. Although
he's never really displayed any refined post moves, the simple fact is that no
team in the Pac-12 has the interior game to keep a motivated, in-shape Smith
from scoring and rebounding almost at will. If UCLA fans choose to be
optimistic, the Bruins might (finally) have the most imposing big man not just
in the Pac-12, but in the country.
I go with Powell as the 5th starter because I like his athleticism and end of
the year defense to go with newcomers Muhammed, Anderson and Drew. Certainly
Powell's FR season was much more impressive than Lamb's, and after watching both
play in h.s. numerous times I think Powell is simply going to be the better
player. Obviously, Lamb is there to step in if Powell falters and will almost
certainly be the Bruins' 6th man, playing starter's minutes in any event.
The Wears should also see substantial time. Both showed considerable
improvement over the course of last season, their first after a one-year layoff
following their transfer from UNC. T Wear seems the more well-rounded at both
ends while D Wear is the better rebounder and outside shooter. T Wear should
back up at the 4 and 5 and see substantial minutes. I think D Wear will see his
PT cut very substantially, perhaps to the 10-15 MPG range backing up at the 4.
Anthony Stover, 6-10 JR C, 0.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG, remains a shot-blocking
machine who doesn't rebound well and has yet to show any offensive game. Most
likely, he gets lost in the shuffle again, but has a chance to actually play
quite a bit as a SR since an in-shape Smith will almost certainly turn pro and
the Wears are best suited for the 4 spot.
UCLA and Arizona are two teams with a lot of talent and a lot of question
marks, but John Wooden said that talent is 90% of basketball and I'll go with
Coach here. UCLA simply has more talent than the rest of the Pac-12 and that
should result not only in a Pac-12 title, but a deep run into the NCAA
Tournament as well.
Seattle Times photo by Jim Bates
